Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Polyurethane/doxorubicin nanoparticles based on electrostatic interactions as pH‐sensitive drug delivery carriers

In order to obtain a pH‐sensitive delivery carrier for doxorubicin (DOX), DOX‐loaded polyurethane (PU·DOX) nanoparticles were readily prepared in water by electrostatic interactions between amphiphilic polyurethane with carboxyl pendent groups (PU‐COOH) and doxorubicin hydrochloride (DOX·HCl). The structures of the products obtained were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, ¹H NMR spectroscopy, gel permeation chromatography, UV–visible spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering and transmission electron microscopy. The average hydrodynamic size of the PU·DOX nanoparticles was around 182 nm with negative surface charge (?1.1 mV) and a spherical or rodlike shape. PU·DOX nanoparticles had a higher drug‐loading content of 14.1 wt%. The in vitro drug release properties of PU·DOX nanoparticles were investigated at pH 4.0, 5.0 and 7.4, respectively. PU·DOX nanoparticles exhibited a good pH‐sensitive drug release property, but there was almost no release of DOX from PU·DOX nanoparticles at pH 7.4. The in vitro cellular uptake assay and the Cell Counting Kit‐8 assay demonstrated that PU·DOX nanoparticles had a higher level of cellular internalization and higher inhibitory effects on the proliferation of human breast cancer (MCF‐7) cells than pure DOX. The enhancement of the inhibition effects resulted from increasing apoptosis‐inducing effects on MCF‐7 cells, which was related to the enhancement of Bax expression and the reduction of Bcl‐2 expression confirmed by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase mediated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) assay, real‐time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay and western blot assay. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry     

基于敏感度分析的机床关键几何误差元素辨识与评定

为了正确识别和判定机床关键几何误差元素对机床精度设计的影响,以PCV-620立式加工中心为研究对象,采用多体系统理论建立机床空间误差模型,从而得到机床几何误差元素与机床精度之间的关联函数。对空间误差模型进行灵敏度分析,获得机床各运动方向的局部灵敏度系数,完成机床关键几何误差元素的初步辨识。以局部灵敏度系数为基础,提出一种与局部灵敏度系数和工作空间中任意位置处的几何误差元素值相关的全局灵敏度系数计算方法,将其作为机床关键几何误差元素的辨识和评定标准,分析得到PCV-620立式加工中心的关键几何误差元素包含3项定位误差、3项垂直度误差和5项直线度误差。     

活塞头部形貌对汽油机爆震敏感性影响研究

基于台架试验和完整工作循环数值模拟,开展了汽油机活塞头部形貌特征对爆震的敏感性研究。以台架试验数据为基准校正了汽油机性能仿真模型,通过开展压缩比为9~16区间的外特性仿真模拟,得出压缩比为12时外特性最优。在压缩比为12的3 500r/min全负荷工况,采用化学反应动力学离子分析法,通过数值模拟分析3类基于活塞头部形貌方案的燃烧室,得出具有点火驻涡区域、气门避障区域、驻涡与避障区域之间的连通区域、后部连通区域的SABCD方案抗爆性最优,并指出活塞头部形貌特征中的连通区域对爆震敏感性具有显著影响。通过对方案SABCD的连通区域关键参数进行优化得出,当区域连通宽度和连通台阶高度均为4mm时爆震敏感性最低。研究结果表明,通过对活塞头部形貌特征的合理设计,能实现提升汽油机压缩比的同时有效抑制燃烧室对爆震的敏感性。     

超细晶工业纯钛的变形、应变速率敏感性和激活体积

在温度为250~450 ℃、应变速率为1×10-4-1 s-1的条件下，对超细晶工业纯钛进行变速率压缩实验，计算超细晶工业纯钛的应变速率敏感性因子和激活体积，并研究超细晶工业纯钛的变形行为。研究结果表明：超细晶工业纯钛在稳态变形阶段存在流变软化效应，这是受变形过程中大角度晶界和位错活动所控制的。超细晶工业纯钛的应变速率敏感性因子和激活体积在数值上都相对较低，应变速率敏感性随着变形温度的升高而增加，但激活体积独立于变形温度。应变速率敏感性和激活体积的数值表明晶粒内部位错之间的交互作用几乎不发生，而位错与晶界之间的交互作用显著影响超细晶工业纯钛的塑性变形。     

新景矿3号煤层渗透率对有效应力敏感性实验分析

利用KDZS-Ⅱ型煤体瓦斯瞬时解吸及渗流特性测试仪在0.31、0.61 MPa气体压力条件下,开展了新景矿3号煤层渗透率对有效应力敏感性实验分析。结果表明:新景矿3号煤层渗透率对有效应力具有极强的敏感性,煤层渗透率随有效应力增加而降低,二者之间具有良好的负指数幂函数关系;相同气体压力和有效应力下各煤样试件的渗透率变化不同且分异现象显著;煤样试件的渗透率大小与孔隙度、裂隙方向密切相关,煤样试件裂隙方向平行于轴线方向、孔隙度大时,煤样试件的渗透率相对较大;煤样试件的裂隙方向垂直于轴线方向、孔隙度较小时,煤样试件的渗透率相对较小。     

Thermodynamic analysis of a novel fossil-fuel–free energy storage system with a trans-critical carbon dioxide cycle and heat pump

This paper presents and analyzes a novel fossil-fuel–free trans-critical energy storage system that uses CO₂ as the working fluid in a closed loop shuttled between two saline aquifers or caverns at different depths: one a low-pressure reservoir and the other a high-pressure reservoir. Thermal energy storage and a heat pump are adopted to eliminate the need for external natural gas for heating the CO₂ entering the energy recovery turbines. We carefully analyze the energy storage and recovery processes to reveal the actual efficiency of the system. We also highlight thermodynamic and sensitivity analyses of the performance of this fossil-fuel–free trans-critical energy storage system based on a steady-state mathematical method. It is found that the fossil-fuel–free trans-critical CO₂ energy storage system has good comprehensive thermodynamic performance. The exergy efficiency, round-trip efficiency, and energy storage efficiency are 67.89%, 66%, and 58.41%, and the energy generated of per unit storage volume is 2.12 kW·h/m³, and the main contribution to exergy destruction is the turbine reheater, from which we can quantify how performance can be improved. Moreover, with a higher energy storage and recovery pressure and lower pressure in the low-pressure reservoir, this novel system shows promising performance.     

Sensitivity of charged particle activation analysis for long-lived radioactive nuclide determination

ABSTRACT

Charged Particle Activation Analysis (CPAA) utilizing an 8-MeV proton beam has been studied for determination of 35 long-lived radioactive nuclides. We accumulated the reaction cross section and nuclear decay data by referring to nuclear database supplied by National Nuclear Data Center in Brookhaven National Laboratory. We also calculated the reaction cross sections by using statistical model code ALICE. By using the nuclear data, we have derived determination sensitivity of the radioactive nuclides relative to unit weight and specific radioactivity. The result indicates that several hardly measurable nuclides with long half-lives such as ¹³⁵Cs, ²⁴⁴Pu, ¹²⁹I, ¹²⁶Sn, ⁹³Mo, ¹⁰⁷Pd, ²³⁶U, ²⁴⁸Cm, and ²³⁷Np have high sensitivity. It may be concluded that CPAA can be applied to determination of several long-lived nuclei and will provide a quick and non-destructive analysis method.     

A review on MRAS-type speed estimators for reliable and efficient induction motor drives

Induction machines have recently been very popular in variable-speed drives, because of their robust construction and relatively low manufacturing costs (brushless), maintenance-free and well-matured control methods. However, for high-precision control and efficiency optimization one needs the information on the rotor speed which can be measured using different speed sensors. All sensors require a mounting space and cabling, they also generate extra costs and reduce system reliability. Therefore, many of the recent research efforts have been dedicated to sensorless or encoderless electrical drives offering such considerable advantages as: lower cost, reduced size and hardware complexity of the drive system, elimination of sensor cables, lower maintenance requirements, possible operation in aggressive environment, higher noise immunity, reliable and user friendly operation. In this article all well-known sensorless techniques are shortly addressed, but the main focus is on the solutions based on the Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) concept. The mathematical models and schemes of all types of MRAS-type speed estimators known from the literature are gathered in this article. The comparative analysis of these speed estimators is done from the following points of view: the speed adaptation mechanism derivation based on the Lyapunov theory, stability problems near zero speed and in the regenerating operation mode, and the sensitivity of MRAS estimators to induction machine parameter changes.     

带缓冲区且产品保修的设备预防性维护建模

论文考虑的是一个完美的生产系统,即生产系统所生产的产品均没有质量问题。为提高设备的可靠性,调整市场需求,提出带缓冲区的设备预防性维护优化建模方法。已经出售的产品,顾客在使用过程中可能会出现故障,基于这个情况,在保修期内会予以免费维修。找出生产系统的运行时间(T)和缓冲区库存量(S),以此为决策变量建立期望成本模型。在此基础上,构造求解最优策略的算法。通过数值算例演示了该模型,通过灵敏度分析确定了最优策略和相关参数的关系。